The Gabe Buckley story
With Katter & Palmer running celebrity candidates in Queensland and a pretty average preference flow, it is unlikely that my friend and freedom-lover Gabe Buckley (Liberal Democrats) will get over the line this time around. But it’s not impossible. As an exercise in procrastination and idealistic dreaming, I’ve been looking at the numbers and worked out what we need to win.
To start with, both major parties will get two quotas in their own right (>28.6%) leaving two spots up for grabs. I assume that the Liberals will get about 10% over quota, and will be odds-on favourite to pick up a third spot thanks to preferences from Fishing, Christians and a few others. If current polling is accurate, then Labor will probably only have 3-4% over quota, and are out of the running for the final spot. From this point, I’m going to work backwards.
The “end game” is very likely to include the Greens and Katter. The Greens are likely to pick up ~10% in their own right, and then will get preferences from Pirate, no CSG, Secular and Palmer which will take them very close to a quota. If Palmer gets a good vote, then the Greens are home, and it’s game over, so the first thing on our wish list is a low vote for the Greens & Palmer.
If Katter’s mob can get 4-5% on their own then they will pick up Labor (3-4%) as well as the shooters, climate skeptics, and the DLP and they could be near 10%. If Gabe can get in front of Katter he will pick up their preferences, and beat out the Greens for the last spot.
So how can Gabe get to 10%?
Just before the end game there is likely to be a couple of small parties who have collected preferences to get around the 5% mark. For the Liberal Democrats, preferences are coming from the Outdoor Recreation Party, ungrouped independents (including Rudd’s brother), Smokers Rights and the Republicans, which will hopefully take the LDP to around 5% of the vote. It’s not clear which other parties will win out, but there will probably be a winner from the micro-left (I guess the Sex Party with about 4-5%) and a winner from the micro-right (I guess Family First with about 6-7%).
The trick for the Gabe is that the Liberal Democrats need to beat the Sex Party and pick up Sex/HEMP/Animals preferences. That should take them in front of FF where they will get FF/One Nation/Motorists preferences. And then if all the planets align correctly, that should be enough to beat Katter and sneak over the line.
Of course, this requires a lot of luck and is quite unlikely. But at least it is possible… so I can dream the dream for a few more weeks.