I have been distracted with Senate preference flows for the last two days, and noticed a few things. Many people have talked about how Pauline Hanson could win in NSW (with micro-party preferences), and Katter might win in QLD (with Labor preferences), and the Nats might get the forth spot in WA (with Wikileaks preferences). That would shift Senate balance of power away from the Greens.
It should be noted that with Palmer and Labor preferences, the Greens are still a very good chance in all states. If they are lucky, it’s actually possible the Greens could *increase* their representation.
But there are some other interesting cases.
Family First have picked up some nice preferences in South Australia, Tasmania and Queensland and have a chance of being back in parliament. The Shooters & Fishers Party look like they have a good preference flow in WA and could be fighting with the Nationals for the last spot. Fishing has a chance in Queensland. And even the Democrats are in with a chance, with a good preference flow in Victoria. There is also a slim chance that Labor might only get one Senator in QLD, with their 2nd spot going Green on the back of Palmer preferences. For the LDP, there is a chance in Queensland and Tasmania, but they both require a lot of luck. The wonderful Rachel Connor also has a mathematical chance in Queensland, but that requires even more luck. But we can dream.
Full state by state analysis is below…
** South Australia
Family First pick up preferences from Christians, One Nation, DLP, Katter, Fishing, Shooters, Lib Dems, Smokers, Motor, Building, Animals, Independents, Sceptics, Population, and Rise up. That might add up to 9% or more if they’re lucky.
The Greens pick up preferences from Democrats, Sex, HEMP, drugs, euthanasia and Labor. That would normally be enough to win, but the Green vote will likely be depressed by Xenophon and so they might miss out.
Xenophon picks up preferences from Secular, Palmer and the Nationals, which will probably be enough to give him a quota. His preferences are split evenly, while Palmer goes to Greens and Nats go to Family First.
Family First pick up preferences from One Nation, Christians, Palmer, Fishing, Shooters, Australia First, Population, Independents, Building, Online, anti-CSG, Uniting, Rise, Sceptics, Motor and any leftover Liberal vote (likely to be small). It’s hard to guess, but that could take them up to 7-8% of the vote. A similar version has similar parties going to the Fishing Party (plus HEMP & DLP & Democrats, minus One Nation, Palmer & Uniting). The winner between FF and Fishing will be determined by their primary vote and the order that the minor parties are eliminated… and the winner will still need a lot of luck to pick up the rest of their quota.
Katter only gets preferences from the DLP and Protectionists, and even the DLP preferences could be blocked by Fishing. It’s impossible to guess at Katter’s primary vote, but if he gets under 4% then he might fall out early. If they can get around 5% then they will be favourite to take the last spot.
Labor may be caught just short of their second quota, and then they don’t receive any preferences until right at the end of the game.
Liberal Democrats gets preferences from Smokers, anti-Greens, Republicans, and Rudd’s brother, which could take them to about 4-5% of the vote, at which point Gabe will be fighting with Katter & Sex to see who stays in the race. If the Lib-Dems can get in front of one of those groups, then the preferences will flow nicely which gives them a chance. If the Lib-Dems fall out early, the beneficiary is probably Katter, Family First or Fishing.
Sex Party potentially get preferences from Animals, Independents, HEMP, Voice, Building, Online, anti-CSG, Democrats and Secular. That could get them to about 4-5% of the vote, though it’s hard to see how they can win from there. They might also have their preferences blocked by Fishing who would take Voice, Building, and Online… making it even harder for Sex to get ahead.
Greens pick up preferences from Pirate in the early rounds, and then they get Secular, Democrats and anti-CSG when the Sex Party falls out. If/when Family First drop out of the race, then the Greens pick up Palmer’s vote, which could take them in front of the Labor Party, stealing their 2nd spot.
Palmer doesn’t get many early preferences so they would need to get a very good primary vote.
** New South Wales
Pauline Hanson & One Nation gets preferences from Katter, DLP, Rise Up, Protectionists, Motor, and Parents. If that group can get to 5% or more then she should get in front of Shooters and/or the Liberal Democrats and/or Sex Party, and then the rest of the preferences should flow… potentially getting a quota. Her primary vote will be crucial.
Shooters are also in the mix. They initially get preferences from Fishing, Family First, Sceptics, Independents, Voice, Online, and Australia First. At that point, they might pick up preferences from the Christian Democrats, and be competitive with One Nation. If they get above One Nation they could be elected, but that will require a lot of luck.
Liberals only get preferences from Carers and Palmer, but that might be enough to get them a third Senator.
Sex Party gets preferences from euthanasia, HEMP, Wiki, Future, Building, Uniting, Bullet train, Animals, Drugs, Democrats, Population, anti-CSG and Secular. This could add up to over 5% which probably isn’t enough. When they are knocked out, many of the preferences flow on to Pauline Hanson.
Liberal Democrats get preferences from Smokers, anti-Greens, and Republicans only which will probably add up to around 5% and see them drop out of the race. The only chance is to get a large boost from having the first spot on a very large ballot and hope that translates into enough votes to jump in front of the Sex Party and get their preferences (then hopefully get in front of One Nation and/or Shooters).
Greens only get preferences from the Socialists and Pirate Party early on as well as the excess from Labor, though they also pick up some of the preferences from the Sex group when they are knocked out.
Sex Party gets Country Alliance, HEMP, Shooters, and Population, which could take the to around 6% of the vote, but then they run out of preferences.
Liberal Democrats get Smokers, anti-Greens, DLP, and Katter, which will probably also take them to around 6% of the vote. If they drop out there, preferences flow to Family First. But if the Lib-Dems are in front of the Sex Party, then they will pick up the Sex/HEMP vote and get to over 8% of the vote.
Family First gets Palmer, Christians, Fishing, Rise Up, Independents, Online, and Sceptics. When Sex drops out, they also pick up the Shooters, which could take them to around 8% of the vote and a battle with the Liberal Democrats. The winner of this FF v LDP fight may well sneak into the Senate at the expense of either the Greens or Liberals.
Labor get no early preferences. The Greens only get early preferences from Pirate. The Labor vote will likely flow to the Greens, which may get them over the line. Alternatively, if/when Family First drop out then Palmer preferences also flow to the Greens.
Liberals also get no early preferences, and will have to hope for a strong primary vote or count on the assistance of Christian and Country preferences to get over the line. With a low primary vote, they are a very real risk of losing their 3rd spot to either Family First or Liberal Democrats.
** Western Australia
Shooters get preferences from Christians, Fishing, Family First, Voice, Independents, Sceptics, Motoring, Rise Up, and Sports, which should give them about 6% and put them in a race with the Nationals. If they outpoll the Nationals then they will pick up Katter/Liberal preferences which will take them close to getting elected. If they are behind the Nats, then they will be eliminated and their preferences will flow to the Nationals and potentially get them elected instead of the Greens.
Nationals get preferences from Wikileaks, Katter, and also the excess from the Liberals. If they get around 4% combined then they could be eliminated — the Nat preferences will go to the Lib-Dems, the Wiki preferences will go to the Greens and the Katter/Liberal preferences will go to the Shooters. If they get >5% then they should pick up preferences from the Lib-Dems, Smokers and anti-Greens, taking them up to 8% or more. They should then get Shooters preferences, which will take them close to a quota.
Greens don’t get any early preferences since their normal allies (Pirate, Future) aren’t running in WA. However, they will probably pick up the excess from Labor which will take them well over 10%. Later they should also pick up preferences from HEMP, Palmer and the Democrats. If the Greens want to win then this will have to be enough as nearly all other preferences flow away from them.
Liberals get no early preferences, though they will be hoping to get three quotas in their own right. Their excess will go first to the Nationals, then Shooters, then Liberal Democrats.
Labor also get no early preferences, and are likely to distribute their preferences to the Greens.
Sex get preferences from HEMP, Secular, Population, and Animals. This will probably bring them up to 3-4% of the vote, where they will likely be eliminated.
Liberal Democrats get preferences from Smokers, Democrats, Palmer, and anti-Greens. This will probably get them over 4%, at which point they would normally hope to pick up Sex/HEMP preferences. However, in WA the Sex Party is preferencing the Shooters which makes things very difficult.
Liberals get no early preferences, and have to wait for DLP and Family First to drop out before they pick up more votes. It will come down to a bit of luck to see whether preferences will get the third Liberal home.
Labor gets no early preferences, and will probably end up passing their excess to the Greens.
Greens get no early votes, and have to wait to see what happens with the micro-left and Labor. As long as they outpoll Labor’s 3rd candidate, they should pick up those preferences. Also, when/if the micro-right drops out, they pick up preferences from Palmer. If the Green primary is particularly low, then their preferences could end up electing Wiki, Sex or the Democrats.
Democrats get preferences from HEMP, Secular, Population, Building, Independents, anti-CSG, Animals, Drugs, Bullet train, and Pirate. If they avoid getting knocked out themselves and can pull together this collection then they might get up to 4-5% of the vote. At this point they will either pass their preferences (mostly) to Sex or Wiki… or else pick up Sex/Wiki preferences and jump ahead to around 9%. If the micro-right drops out, they get Palmer, Family First, Fishers, Shooters, Online, Sceptics, Banks, Motor, half CEC… the only one missing is Katter. There is a chance we could see the resurrection of the Democrats.
Sex Party only get preferences from Voice as their usual feeder parties go to the Democrats. They are likely to drop out early and preference Wiki. The optimistic story is that they get a strong primary vote (3%) then pick up Wiki preferences (+2%) and then some of the preferences from the Democrat group (+3%) taking them up to 8%. If the micro-right drops out then they will also pick up preferences from Fishers, Shooters, Banks, Online, Sceptics, and Motor (but not Katter, CEC or Family First) which could take them over 11%.
Wiki has nearly the exact same story as the Sex Party. To start with, they only get early preferences from nameless independents. If their primary vote is high enough (3%) then they could pick up Sex preferences (+2%) and then some of the preferences from the Democrats group (+3%), taking them up to 8%. If the micro-right drops out, Wiki has a similar flow as Sex, except they do *not* get preferences from the Fishers or the Shooters, but they do get preferences from Katter, Family First and the CEC, which probably works out much the same.
Family First pick up preferences from Fishing, Shooting, Palmer, Christians, Online, Banks, Motor and CEC. They will be hoping that gets them over 5% so they can pick up preferences from the DLP (as well as Rise up, Sceptics & Katter… but not Country which goes to the Liberals) and get closer to 9%. Things get hard from here. If they beat the micro-left, they pick up preferences from Democrats, Bullet train, Independents, Building, Voice, anti-CSG, and Animals, taking them to around 10%.
DLP gets preferences from Country, Katter, Sceptics, nameless, and Rise Up. As with FF, they will be hoping that gets them up around 5% and then they might pick up preferences from Family First (as well as Christians, CEC, Fishing & Shooting) and get to about 8%. If they beat the micro-left, they get preferences from Bullet train, Independents, Building, and Animals, leaving them short of 10%.